Comic book movies have been dominating the box office for years now, and each new entry easily fights off competitors during their opening weekend. Despite the hefty competition, the same should bode true for next month’s AQUAMAN, coming out the same week as Disney’s MARY POPPINS RETURNS and Paramount’s Transformers spinoff, BUMBLEBEE. Though those movies should do well, estimates are predicting AQUAMAN will sink them their first weekend with a fantastic $65 million.
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The estimates (via THR) take into account the fact there aren’t normally huge openings during December, lest we include the likes of STAR WARS in the mix. Normally, moviegoers tend to spread out their viewing, perhaps seeing more during the month than usual, giving big movies long legs into January. On that note, should AQUAMAN make that much from Dec. 21-23 – which would come in under the likes of VENOM and ANT-MAN AND THE WASP – it would be a terrific start and one of the biggest December openings ever.
This month that weekend leads straight into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the latter being one of the biggest days for movies of the year, meaning that if AQUAMAN does well it could easily swim up to $100 million for its five-day launch. Earlier today we reported on director James Wan being nervous about all the competition next month, but it looks like he can sleep easy knowing his flick will likely win the weekend and even the month.
As for the other two movies, POPPINS opens on Wednesday, December 19, giving it two extra days to shine before AQUAMAN and BEE open. The estimates for the musical starring Emily Blunt signal a strong opening, set to earn $35-40 million Dec. 19-23, and then a total $55-60 million through Dec. 25. BUMBLEBEE is set to come in third place, with the new Transformers movie expected to make $25-30 million the first weekend, and then $35-40 million for the first five days. Passion for the series has dwindled a bit after the lackluster showing of TRANSFORMERS: THE LAST KNIGHT, but this new spin could earn back lost viewers thanks to a softer approach from director Travis Knight.
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It would come as no shock to me if AQUAMAN won the weekend, simply because it seems like the most accessible option for audiences. MARY POPPINS RETURNS looks great, but that seems geared toward certain, nostalgic audiences and families with really small children. Plus, you would think most kids would rather see AQUAMAN and BUMBLEBEE over a Disney musical, so I'm curious to see how that week in film plays out.
AQUAMAN and BUMBLEBEE arrive December 21, and MARY POPPINS RETURNS arrives December 19.