Anora takes top honors at both DGA and PGA Awards. Are the Oscars next?

For a while there the Best Picture race was wide open. But now that both the Directors Guild of America and the Producers Guild of America have agreed on one film, it’s looking like the image is starting to come together for the Academy Awards. And that film is Anora, as director Sean Baker took home the DGA Award for Best Director and the film itself won the top prize from the PGA.

First-time DGA nominee Sean Baker would beat out The Brutalist’s Brady Corbet, A Complete Unknown’s James Mangold, Conclave’s Edward Berger, and Emilia Pérez’s Jacques Audiard.  As we’ve found, the Directors Guild of America has an incredible track record of predicting the Best Director Oscar winner, with less than 10 of the DGA winners not taking home the Academy Award. The most recent example was in 2019, with Sam Mendes winning for 1917 but losing the Oscar to Bong Joon-ho for Parasite. Really the only person that seems to be standing in his way is Corbet, but even now that feels like a long-shot.

As far as where winning the top PGA Award (officially called the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures) puts Anora for the Best Picture Oscar, that also gives it a wide cushion. But since the PGA Awards are about 40 years newer than the DGA Awards, the numbers are a bit more skewed. More than a quarter of the PGA winners have ended up losing the Best Picture Oscar, with three coming in the 2010s alone. Even still, it might be wise to put your money on Anora, especially as it’s taking advantage of some of the controversies surrounding The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez.

On the PGA front, Anora bested a number of films also competing for the Best Picture Oscar: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, and Wicked. (A Real Pain and September 5 have been swapped out with I’m Still Here and Nickel Boys by the AMPAS.)

Elsewhere at the DGAs, Best First Time Feature went to Nickel Boys’ RaMell Ross and Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev won for their documentary Porcelain War. Shōgun, Hacks and Ripley were top television winners. Shōgun and Hacks also had a big night at the PGAs, while Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story and Wild Robot won their respective categories.

Who do you now predict to win Best Director and Best Picture at the Oscars next month? Is Anora the safest bet?