Box Office Predictions: Venom 3 to lead a slow weekend

Another week, another ho-hum weekend at the box office. When the studios were figuring out their release schedules for 2024, it seems they deliberately left the pre-and-post election period empty, with the notion being that people would be too distracted to go to movies. That’s pretty bad news for exhibitors, as typically the first full weekend in November kinda kicks off the late fall period. Usually, it’s a big weekend for the MCU, with The Marvels (well, that wasn’t so big) opening last year and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in 2022. I guess next weekend we’re getting Red One, but does anyone expect that to do well? I have my doubts.

As such, this weekend seems slow, with the general consensus among all being that it should be an easy weekend for Venom: The Last Dance to win. It had an impressively light week-to-week decline in week 2 (after an underwhelming opening) and should gross around $14 or so million this weekend. A24’s horror flick Heretic, starring Hugh Grant and Sophie Thatcher, should make about $10 million, with it lacking the hook recent horror hits had but boasting strong reviews out of TIFF (read ours here). 

In third place, we’ll likely find the faith-based release, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever. This one seems primed to have a better opening than usual, with it based on a beloved book, and also having director Dallas Jenkins (The Chosen) at the helm, along with his large following. The film is also said to play fairly well to a non-religious audience as well, with it fairly subtle for the genre, and given the holiday theme, it should make at least $8 million (if it doesn’t end up beating Heretic). 

The Wild Robot should nab fourth place (after increasing its audience last weekend), with about $5 million, while Smile 2 should make about $4 million or so. Expect Focus Features’s Conclave and A24’s breakout word-of-mouth sleeper We Live in Time to not be too far behind.

Here are my predictions:

1. Venom: The Last Dance: $14 million
2. Heretic: $10 million
3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever: $8 million
4. The Wild Robot: $5 million
5. Smile 2: $4 million

What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!