Avengers: Endgame on track for $200-250M opening; Could crack $260M

Last Updated on August 2, 2021

When tickets for AVENGERS: ENDGAME went on sale Tuesday it didn’t take long for the internet to literally break, as sites for ticket vendors and theater chains like Fandango, Atom and AMC crashed after they were flooded with fans rushing to get their tickets. The end result was the best-selling first-day of tickets sales for Fandango, which essentially means this movie is going to make a massive mint when it opens at the end of the month. How big will that savory mint be? Well, current box office analysists have the movie on track for an expectedly big opening between $200-$250 million, with good chances it could go beyond that.

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Those “lower” numbers are coming from sources (via Variety, Deadline) who are trying to be a bit conservative and are most likely factoring in some diminishing returns after INFINITY WAR broke the opening weekend record with $257 million. A good example of this is THE LAST JEDI, which despite also selling a massive number of pre-sale tickets opened to about $220 million, which came under the $247 million of FORCE AWAKENS. One more reason for a potential drop that analysist are citing is the lengthy runtime of AVENGERS, which clocks in at just over three hours. This limits the amount of showtimes theaters can run, which simply means less meat in the seats unless they add showtimes.  

However, some sources speaking to Deadline are actually optimistic the movie will open to a bigger number than INFINITY WAR, perhaps cracking $260 million – and maybe beyond. The report claims the superhero blockbuster could even near $300 million opening weekend, citing math figures that take into account “if Endgame has 4-5 showtimes a day, at a 70% capacity at 12K U.S. auditoriums,” and plays in over 4,000 theaters (INFINITY WAR opened in almost 4,500).

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One more factor working in ENDGAME’s favor is the fact that, in the case of BLACK PANTHER, INFINITY WAR and even CAPTAIN MARVEL, the openings have far exceeded the estimates in the weeks prior, often blowing past the early estimates in big ways. For INFINITY WAR, the projections were topping out at about $220 million, which would’ve given it one of the biggest openings ever, all before rocketing past that total for a record-breaking $257 million frame.

Truth be told, these projections are so large and anticipation is so high there’s no telling what to expect. INFINITY WAR had more stars, was advertised as the culmination of 10 years of filmmaking and had a whopper of an ending that had audiences going back for more. ENDGAME, on the other hand, will be buoyed by that cliffhanger, has the inclusion of Captain Marvel (coming off her billion-dollar intro) and truly is the end for some of these characters. My thoughts? ENDGAME has everything INFINITY had going for it and more, and I believe it could easily topple the opening record. I mean, there are people probably still waiting in those virtual lines for tickets.  

AVENGERS: ENDGAME is in theaters April 26.